President Joe Biden is under great pressure. Politicians across the spectrum are trying to persuade him to hit the Houthis. They believe hitting the Houthis is the only way out of the crisis building up in the Red Sea. The crisis is huge as the Houthis continue to attack cargo ships sailing through the sliver. Fully aware of the risks from such retributive attacks, Mr Biden seems to be going slow even on surgical strikes. Hitting the Houthis back would surely spread the conflict across Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.
Roiling the Global Economy
This is the real possibility that America wants to avoid. The Gaza-Israel war has been wreaking havoc in the region since October 7th. on the top of it, if the Houthis are also hit, it would get graver and more serious. The Houthis have been able to hold America back in fear as the militia is nuclear-powered Iran’s proxy in Yemen. Plus, how far the Houthis could go can be guessed from the way they have been attacking shipping vessels in the Red Sea.
The attacks have begun to roil the global economy, not to speak of Israel’s. The risks of shipping via the Bab al-Mandab strait too are rising fast. However, America is more worried about the risk of the war broadening. This worry has taken over the concern that a reprisal’s potential to hurt the global economy. As this fear keeps holding Mr Biden back from hitting the Houthis, warmongers are saying the risk of a broader war has not gone away. In fact, it is higher than ever before.
Already Huge Conflicts on Hand
A caveat here. For America, a war against the Houthis is a needless war. It is one war that Mr Biden desperately wants to avoid. He is already aghast at the enormity of civilian casualties in the Gaza war. He does not want this war to become broader. He knows a broader conflict would spread rapidly across Iraq, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. America is well aware of the current situation wherein global security has been already compromised.
This is true as the war in Ukraine has been straining global aid lines. America has been struggling to send more aid to Ukraine. Plus, Mr Biden has been trying hard to manage soaring tensions in East Asia. Worryingly, Taiwan and the South China Sea are big headaches in the region. If a rapidly-expandable war against the Houthis too is waged now, America would have so many huge conflicts on hand. That too at a time when domestic politics in America is in a major churn.
A Big War is Bad for the Region
Anyway, Mr Biden is already grappling with so many war-related issues. A regional war that was avoided on October 7th continues to simmer below the surface. Iran continues to back Hamas financially, ideologically and politically. The Shi’ite nation has let its proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria hit American and Israeli targets. Though the United States and Israel have been hitting the Iranian proxies back, fortunately that has not flared up into a full-scale war. However, war-like tensions are still simmering beneath.
Sure, American aircrafts have stopped Hezbollah from attacking Israel from the north. Mr Biden too has asked Israel to stay away from full-scale operations in Lebanon. Yet, these gestures and tokenisms would come to a nought if the Houthis continue to attack ships in the Red Sea. Sustained Red-Sea attacks may finally end in an expanded war. As the Houthis control Yemen and capital Sana’a, such an expanded war would be ruinous for the entire region.
The Upset is Causing Global Concerns
This apart, the Houthis are feared for many reasons. They are brutal. They are well-endowed with resources, arms and ammunition. Worse, they are extremely inimical to Israel, Saudi Arabia and America. Attacking ships sailing through the Red Sea demonstrates their skills in managing drones and manipulating cruise missiles. They are merciless and will fire indiscriminately at anything that flies suspiciously. This trust-none militant approach is now roiling global markets in shipping and oil.
Coming at a time when the monster of inflation seems to have been tamed, the upset is causing concerns among global strategists. Logistically, the Red Sea attacks by the Houthis is inflicting pains on the bottom lines of global companies. The cargo ships are being diverted now via the Cape of Good Hope, a longer and a more expensive route. This is worrying the analysts, the markets and investors more, who are concerned about the squeeze this would put on profits.
The Recipe for Global Disaster
As the Houthi attacks raise the sceptre of a broader war, America has a difficult political choice. The Republicans want Mr Biden to hit Iran hard. They say that a hard strike alone can stop Iran and its proxies. They contend that such extreme actions alone can stabilise the region. They have a major grouse now: the president is not even using ‘minimal deterrants’ to discipline the hardliners in the Islamic world.
Unfortunately, using ‘extreme deterrants’ against Iran and proxy Houthis will release a dangerous genie out of the bottle. It is a gamble Mr Biden would like to avoid and he should. Any hardline military action against Iran would surely set not only the region on fire, but would expand the war to inconceivable limits beyond the region. Iran pitted against America in an eyeball-to-eyeball conflict is recipe for great global disaster.
Will Encourage the Houthis to Attack
This is one reason why Mr Biden may be exercising restraint, despite Houthi provocations in the Red Sea. Yet the American president is leaving nothing to chance. He told America on December 18th that he is setting up a global naval coalition to protect ships passing through the Red Sea. Globalising the Houthi threats in the Red Sea should have earned Mr Biden kudos. But it failed to.
This was because the naval coalition is small and mired in misty concepts. This nebulousness would again encourage the Houthis to attack and raise the risk of a broader war. A wide war will have to be fought with most nuclear powers in the fray. Inevitably, it will be prohibitively expensive, in terms of money and human lives. So expensive it would be that the huge cost would hobble the global economy for years to come. This fear may be weighing on America’s mind now.
The Dragon Will not Prevail on Iran
There could be a way out of this difficult situation. America can consider limited and focused surgical strikes on the Houthis. But that has a downside. Low-level surgical strikes will not stop the Houthis from attacking ships in the Red Sea and deter Iran from backing the Houthis. Plus, Yemen would have to suffer collateral damages in the bargain. Viewed any which way, the risk of a broader war is rising.
Even if America re-designates the Houthis as a foreign terrorist group and thereby boosts humanitarian efforts, the problem would remain unsolved. Attacks on ships in the Red Sea will go on. This is because Yemen and the Houthis are global problems, and not local issues. The world has a huge stake in keeping global trade flowing seamlessly through the Red Sea. Though China is an Iranian ally, the dragon will not prevail on Iran and Yemen to hold the Houthis back. Therein lies the real rub.
The Poliphoon’s Last Word
Again, this Sino-Iranian angle is raising the risk of an expansive global war. Even surgical strikes, once they are launched, have the tendency to turn into a full-scale war. However, tempers are running high in Washington now. American Republicans are sounding increasingly hawkish. Murder and mayhem continue unabated in Palestine. Despite America’s plea, Israel has failed to tone its offensive down in Gaza. These are all pointers towards a broader war.
