Backstabbers are a dime a dozen in politics. Nothing can be truer than this in Italy, the land of Brutus. In a swift turn of political events, reform-loving Mario Draghi resigned as Italy’s prime minister after he lost support of three major partners in his government. This premature resignation spells tragedy for Italy as Draghi was in the midst of waging a war against Italy’s monstrous debt pile.
Sadly, Draghi failed to see what was brewing within his hotchpotch formation. His self-serving partners scored many malicious brownie points in the heated Senate debate on 20 July. Insulted, the septuagenarian prime minister bowed out in his characteristic value-respecting style. At once, Italy lost its Super Mario who handled the Eurozone crisis deftly as head of the European Central Bank.
Offers with Riders
The three backstabbers could not have asked for more. They tried to make a centrist Draghiswing far-right. They couldn’t. They tried again to convince him to turn his pragmatic plans into populist-nationalist programmes. They failed again. The confidence vote was the last resort. Abstaining from this confidence vote, Draghi’s three coalition partners – the Five Star Movement, the far-right Northern League and the centre-right Forza Italia – decided Draghi’s fate. Finally, the far-right Brothers of Italy’s vote against Draghi sealed his fate. https://www.politico.eu/article/berlusconi-big-lunch-mario-draghi-resign-oust-forza-italia-matteo-salvini-election-italy-conte-chaos
Though Matteo Salvini of the Northern League and Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia were ready to back Draghi initially, their offers came with riders attached. The preconditions were a top-down rejig of Draghi’s plans and a firm shift to the conservative right. As is his wont, Draghi declined to prevent his broad centrist government’s degeneration into a narrow rightist formation.
ManyWeighty Questions
Draghi may not be concerned about his exit, but reform-loving Italians ought to be. Draghi’s resignation means financial reforms would go out of the window, letting in rank indebtedness to haunt Italy again. Worse, Draghi’s earnest attempts to defend the euro against speculative raids will surely come to nought.
The Italian far-right may refuse to accept Draghi’s role in injecting confidence into financial markets. They may dismiss his success in solving the Eurozone sovereign-debt crisis as a mere fluke. But, Italy can ill-afford to do this. Particularly because Italy and its economy needs a Draghian personality to bring in the much-needed reforms and restructuring, and pull Italy through. How can Italians forget Draghi’s stellar role in rescuing Italy from an euro-endangering borrowing situation?
The Italian far-right may refuse to accept Draghi’s role in injecting confidence into financial markets. They may dismiss his success in solving the Eurozone sovereign-debt crisis as a mere fluke. But, Italy can ill-afford to do this. Particularly because Italy and its economy needs a Draghian personality to bring in the much-needed reforms and restructuring, and pull Italy through. How can Italians forget Draghi’s stellar role in rescuing Italy from an euro-endangering borrowing situation?
Frown-Worthy Possibilities
Surely, the September poll will bring in a right-wing government. Such a dispensation will be quite radical with far-right luminaries and their parties as stakeholders. Neo-fascist Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, neo-nationalist Matteo Salvini’s Northern League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia are slated to occupy prominent positions in the coming coalition. This does not augur well for Italy which is yet to get over its bad Fascist hangover.
Italians have more reasons to get worried. Meloni is notorious for her illiberal ideology and undying love for Hungarian despot Viktor Orban and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Meloni will be the leader of the largest party in the coming coalition and she is likely to be anointed prime minister. Her stand vis-à-vis the Ukraine aggression will make peace-loving Italians bitter. This is sure to aggravate Italy’s energy crisis and sap its strengths to fight the ‘feared’ global recession. In such a divisive environment, the long-gestating European unity is sure to splinter. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/why-rise-giorgia-meloni-anything-business-usual-italy/
Geopolitics apart, the Meloni-Salvini combine will have strong views on immigration and gay rights at home. This will make Italy a non-reformist endangering the Pan European identity in the works. In all likelihood, the Meloni-Salvini combine will trumpet a Trumpian right-wing nationalist Italians-First policy overriding the larger interests of European Union. Unapologetically, these frown-worthy possibilities will make Italy latch on to vote-capturing populism in jobs and welfare schemes. Worse, this may ultimately end in a return to Fascism, perhaps irrevocably.
A Disruptive Democracy in Store
On the finance front too, Italy has a lot to worry about. The new government will have to get, by end 2022, the euro 200 bn public debt rolled over. As interest rates and inflation rise without let, this means European Union’s third largest economy will have too many foes to fight against. Inevitably then, Italy will have to go back to the European Central Bank and finally get stuck deep into indebtedness.
Moreover, the new government may bungle the receipt of the next tranche of euro 19 bn of the Draghi-negotiated EU recovery fund. Such a bungling will raise serious doubts over its ability to effect the mandated reforms of the European Commission. These reforms are mandatory for disbursing the euro 200 bn in grants and low-cost loans from the EU recovery fund.
Worse, the League will vigorously oppose deregulation in many sectors – resist steps to improve tax collection and shift the balance of taxation from labour to land, among others. Along with these, Draghi’s EUapproved reforms in civil justice, competition laws and tax laws will never see the light of the day. With the chances of Italy losing further tranches of cash running high, durability of the new collation will come under cloud. Though the centre-left Democratic Party would love to keep a few Draghian policies alive, such a desire will be vetoed by Five Star Movement, Meloni and Salvini. Such an internal rift would mean a divisive and disruptive democracy in store for Italians.
In Conclusion
During the 18 months he was in power, Draghi could log in reasonable economic growth. He reformed the judiciary, mopped the tax code, streamlined the bureaucracy, tapped alternative energy sources and explored the renewables. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/17/draghi-effect-how-italy-economy-has-changed.html In politics too, Draghi coaxed the best out of his politicians, made them believe in compromises and respect values. Alas, he had to go finally because of the same self-serving politicians. Certainly, this is not Draghi’s defeat, but Italy’s.
While leaving his chamber, after losing support of his coalition partners, Draghi was asked if he was heading to see president Sergio Mattarella to confirm his resignation. In his characteristic style, Draghi replied: “For now, I’m just taking the lift.” Draghi might have taken the lift. But, Italy’s democracy has taken a dive.
